双重异质性视角下城市群经济韧性的演化特征及其影响机制研究 ——以长三角为例

基于双重异质性视角，分析2007—2020年长三角41个城市经济韧性的演化特征及其影响机制。研究表明：长三角城市群不同阶段的经济韧性空间差异显著，且冷热点聚集区域出现了组团式动态转换；面对外来冲击时，固定投资、产业多样化、国企对经济韧性解释力较强，而出口贸易解释力波动较大；在结构调整期时，固定投资对经济韧性支撑作用减弱，三产占比、财政支撑、技术创新及人力资本水平的提高加速了产业结构升级，提高中长期经济韧性；政府通过塑造产业结构及改善技术等要素错配程度影响经济韧性。

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Mechanism of Economic Resilience of Urban Agglomeration from the Perspective of Double Heterogeneity ——Taking Yangtze River Delta as An Example

From the perspective of double heterogeneity, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of economic resilience of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2020. The results indicate that the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration at different stages presented spatial differences, and the cluster of hot and cold spots had a dynamic transformation. When faced with external shocks, fixed investment, industrial diversification and the proportion of state owned enterprises can give a much more convincing explanation, while the export trade has a large fluctuation. During the period of structural adjustment, the supporting role of fixed investment for economic resilience was reduced, however, the improvement of the proportion of three industries, financial support, technological innovation and human capital level accelerated the upgrading of industrial structure, thus improving economic resilience of the region in the medium and long run. Government management affects regional economic resilience through shaping industrial structure and improving the mismatch degree of technology and other factors.