长江三角洲地区县域耕地变化驱动要素研究--以原锡山市为例

土地利用变化的驱动要素研究，是当前土地利用／土地覆盖变化（LUCC）研究的热点和关键问题之一。长江三角洲地区工业化、城市化发展迅速，耕地非农占用量大，经济发展与耕地保护的矛盾突出。运用相关分析、主成份分析和回归分析等,通过对典型区原锡山市耕地数量、质量变化驱动要素的定量分析，探讨了县域耕地变化的驱动要素，为进一步研究整个长江三角洲地区的耕地变化提供借鉴，为合理利用和保护耕地服务。

Arable Land Use Changes at County Level in Yangtze River Delta-A Case Study of Xishan City

China has the largest population and the relatively limited land, especially the arable land. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in recent years, the arable land has decreased sharply in Yangtze River Delta, which is one of the developed areas in China. On the basis of the statistics and the latest land inventory of the past several years, the impact of human dimensions on the arable land use changes was discussed in this paper. The case study was chosen in Xishan County, which is one of the typical developed areas in Yangtze River Delta. Both the quality and quantity changes of the arable land were impacted by all kinds of factors, especially the human dimensions. So this paper mostly discussed the impact of human dimensions with relevance analysis, principal element analysis and feedback analyisis. Also the model of the human dimensions on the arable land use changes was set up. The result indicated that the major sector impacting the arable land changes was social factors, including policy, economic development and the growth of population. The change of quantity was influenced more deeply by social factors than that of quality. And they were all impacted directly bythe status of the agriculture. So we should pay more attention to the quantity change at present.