甘肃河西区出山径流统计特性分析与预测

根据甘肃可西区出山口水文站最新径流资料，对该区年、月径流统计特性（如自相关性、长持续性、径流年代变化、趋势性、周期性及年内变化等）利用Hurst系数、简单分波法等进行了分析，建立了该区年径流统计预测模型，结果表明该区年径流存在着明显的趋势性及长持续性，50年代径流偏丰，90年代有偏枯趋势，建立的时间序列预测模型，做出两步预测，相对误差可控制在20％以内。

Statistic Characteristics Analysis and Prediction for Runoff from Mountain-Pass Stations in Hexi Area of Gansu Province

On the basis of the runoff data recently collected from mountain-pass stations in the Hexi area of Gansu Province, the statistic characteristics of runoff, including auto-correlation, long-term continuity, runoff variation in different decades, and statistic components (trend, period) are analyzed, and a predictive statistic model is established for the prediction of annual runoff. The results show that the runoff in the studied area has an obvious trend and a long-term continuity, and that the runoff is abundant in 1950s, and short in 1990s. The error of prediction by the model may be controlled within 20%.