基于无标度网络的创新扩散模型研究

从无标度潜在采纳者关系网络出发,考虑潜在采纳者所处局域关系网络对创新采纳决策的影响,自底向上,从微观到宏观建立了创新扩散模型.模型一方面放宽了传统Bass类模型对于潜在采纳者关系网络不符合实际的假设;另一方面,引入了无标度网络的重要参数(度分布幂指数),使得创新采纳决策的微观机制能与宏观扩散数据相结合,体现了微分方程建模方法的优势,提高了模型的应用价值.对模型的进一步仿真分析发现,潜在采纳者关系网络节点度值的异质性程度越高及网络平均度值越小,则创新扩散深度越大、创新扩散速度越慢.

Innovation Diffusion Modeling Based on Scale-Free Networks

Considering the influence of local area networks on innovation adoption decision-making of consumers， an innovation diffusion model from the micro to the macro was constructed based on the scale-free potential adopter networks. On one hand， the constructed model relaxed Bass model’s unrealistic assumptions of the consumer networks; on the other hand， the model introduced an important parameter of the scale-free networks (degree distribution exponential) ， which helped to integrate the micro-adoption mechanisms and macro-diffusion data. With an advantage of differential equation modeling， the model’s application value was improved. A further simulation analysis of the model demonstrated that the more heterogeneous consumer networks’ node degrees and the less network average degrees are， the deeper and the faster innovation diffusion will be.