| 一种航空设备备件预测模型的风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 伏洪勇,赵宇. 一种航空设备备件预测模型的风险评价[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2003, 25(12): 1576-1578 |
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| 作者姓名： | 伏洪勇 赵宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学可靠性工程研究所,北京,100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对产品故障时间间隔服从指数分布、备件需求量为泊松流的航空设备备件需求量预测模型,结合概率统计的理论对用该模型预测的备件需求量所面临的保障风险和经济损失作了一定的理论探讨,并给出了相应的定量关系式。最后用一个工程实例对预测模型进行了验证,风险分析从理论上进一步完善了该模型,为其在工程实际应用提供了理论依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 备件 航空设备 保障风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-506(2003)12-1576-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-07-30 |
Risk analysis for the forecast model of spare parts for aeronautical-equipment |
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| FU Hong-yong,ZHAO Yu. Risk analysis for the forecast model of spare parts for aeronautical-equipment[J]. System Engineering and Electronics, 2003, 25(12): 1576-1578 |
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| Authors: | FU Hong-yong ZHAO Yu |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the support risk and economic loss for the forecast model of spare parts for aero-electronic equipment and gives the relevant quantitative expressions, based on the theory of probability. The failure time of this kind of equipment follows an exponential probability distribution and the demand for spare parts keeps a Poisson probability distribution. At last, these models using an engineering example. |
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| Keywords: | spare part aeronautical-equipment support risk |
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