山西城乡居民直接碳排放影响因素的对比研究

为有效控制城乡居民直接碳排放的持续增长,基于LMDI模型,探究了1995—2012年家庭人均收入、家庭规模和家庭户数三个家庭相关因素以及能源强度、能源结构和碳排放系数对山西省城乡居民直接碳排放的影响,并比较分析城镇和农村直接碳排放影响因素存在差异的原因。研究发现:1城镇和农村居民直接碳排放均增长显著,但城镇部分增长速度更快;2家庭人均收入效应为城镇和农村居民直接碳排放增长的主要促进因素;家庭户数效应显著增加了城镇居民直接碳排放,但对农村居民直接碳排放的促进作用微小;能源强度效应和家庭规模效应对城乡居民直接碳排放的抑制分列第一、二位;能源结构效应对农村居民直接碳排放的促进作用更大;碳排放系数效应对城乡居民直接碳排放的抑制作用均比较微弱。最后针对以上结论,提出了相关政策建议。

Comparative Study on Direct Carbon Emission Influence Factors of Urban and Rural Residents in Shanxi

In order to effective control the sustainable growth of direct carbon emission of urban and rural residents,based on the LMDI model to explore the influences of three family related factors including fami-ly income per capita,family scale and family household quantity of 1995—2012 and energy intensity,energy structure and carbon emission coefficient on direct carbon emission of urban and rural residents in Shanxi and comparative analyze the reason of direct carbon emission influence factors difference between urban and rural and country residents.Research results show that ① the direct carbon emission of urban and rural and country residents are increasing greatly but the rural and country part has faster speed;② the family in-come per capita is the prime motivator of direct carbon emission of urban and rural and country residents;the effect of family household quantity greatly increase the direct carbon emission of urban and rural resi-dents but it has slight influence on the direct carbon emission of country residents;the inhibition of energy intensity and family scale on direct carbon emission of urban and rural and country residents are respective-ly in first and second place;the effect of energy structure has greater motivating influence on direct carbon emission of urban and rural and country residents;the inhibition of carbon emission coefficient effect on di-rect carbon emission of urban and rural and country residents is slight.At last,propose relevant policy rec-ommendations according to above conclusions.