基于STIRPAT模型的碳排放驱动因子研究——来自蚌埠市的例证

基于蚌埠市2006—2014年的时间序列数据,利用STIRPAT模型对蚌埠市碳排放的驱动因子进行实证分析.研究结果表明,城镇建成区面积、城市人口数量、人均GDP和重工业比重是影响蚌埠市碳排放量增加的驱动因子,其中城镇建成区面积是首要诱因;能源强度和能源结构是制约碳排放量增加的因子,其中能源强度的制约作用远远大于能源结构.

Study on carbon emission driving factors based on STIRPAT model--An example from Bengbucity

By using ofSTIRPAT modelanalyzes the driving factors of Bengbucity carbon emissions based on the time series data of Bengbu among 2006—2014.The results of the study show that urban built-up area,urban population, per capita GDP and the proportion of heavy industry are the driving factors which increased carbon emissions in Bengbucity.Besides,the urban built-up area is the primary cause.Energy intensity and energy structure are to restrict the increase of carbon emissions.what′s more,the constraints of the role of energy intensity is far greater than the energy structure.