关于开放种群标志重捕Jolly—Seber模型的修正

Jolly-Seber模型是标志重捕法（marked-recapture method)中最常见的模型，可以适有于开放动物种群，其形式比较直观，但是这个模型的参数过多，导致估计值的误差偏大，针对φ不为常数而p为常数的Jolly-Seber模型引入生存率的变化率，利用多维试探法对修正的Jolly-Seber模型的算法作了改进，并用计算机程序对Jolly的例子进行了说明。

A modified mark-recapture Jolly-Seber model for open animal populations

The Jolly-Seber model is the most useful model in the marked-recapture method for open population and easily to be applied, but often requires a large number of parameters to be estimated then would otherwise be necessary. Jolly presented modifications of the Jolly-Seber model for capture-recapture-data, which assume constant survival and/or capture rates. Because of the reduced number of parameters, Jolly models lead to more efficient estimators than the Jolly-Seber model by means of general maximum likelihood equations. In the present paper, the authors added a derivative (change of rate) of survival rate to Jolly models, and the availability of computer programs to perform their modified Jolly-Seber model is described by using multidimensional trial method. An example of data from Jolly′s paper was given.