| 基于灰色马尔可夫链的农民平均收入实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王艳玲. 基于灰色马尔可夫链的农民平均收入实证研究[J]. 河南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 36(1): 16-18 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王艳玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆师范大学,数学与计算机科学学院,重庆,400047 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色理论和离散状态的马尔可夫链相结合,用灰色马尔可夫链对农村居民人均纯收入进行实证研究.针对灰色数据系列首先用GM(1,1)模型进行趋势预测,然后利用马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵预报方法对其预测值进行二次拟合,得到马尔可夫链预测精度明显高于GM(1,1)模型预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 灰色马尔可夫模型 纯收入 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2367（2008）01-0016-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-31 |
Empirical Study on Per Capita Annual Net Income of Rural Residents Based on Grey Markov Model |
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| WANG Yan-ling. Empirical Study on Per Capita Annual Net Income of Rural Residents Based on Grey Markov Model[J]. Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science), 2008, 36(1): 16-18 |
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| Authors: | WANG Yan-ling |
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| Abstract: | A Grey Markov Model for forecasting net income is presented by means of combining Grey system theory with dispersed Markov Chains theory.First of all,according to the variable sequence,GM(1,1) model is set up to forecast the general development trend of variable as first fitting values,then the fitting values are revised by means of Markov state change probability matrix for forecast as the second fitting values.Results show that the Grey Markov Model has higher accuracy than that of GM(1,1) model. |
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| Keywords: | Grey system Grey Markov Model net income |
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