网络计划计算机仿真与风险分析

为研究工作延续时间的分布对总工期分布的影响程度及总工期的风险分布特征，建立了正态分布、β分布、三角分布网络进度计划的风险分析模型，通过计算机仿真获得工程系统的进度估计及其统计分布特性，从而获得工程总工期的风险分布，并结合实例进行分析，得出结论：各工作的延续时间概率分布无论呈何种分布，总工期符合正态分布。

Computer Emulation and Risk Analysis of Network Planning

This paper established is a risk analysis models of normal distribution　β distribution,triangular distribution network schedule planning, for the study of the effect of the distribution of duration on the distribution of total period and the character of total period risk distribution. Based on computer emulation, the estimated schedule and the statistical distribution character of projects are given;then the risk distribution of total period is obtained. A case analysis is conducted in detail, and a conclusion is drawn. The total period is of normal distribution whatever duration distribution is.