基于生态足迹的江苏宿迁市可持续发展探讨

在提出生态足迹概念及其模型的基础上，以宿迁市为例，对其在1999～2005年的生态足迹及供给进行了计算和动态分析，结果表明：宿迁市在1999～2005年的平均人均生态承载力为0．5298hm^2，人均生态承载力由0．5489hm^2降为0．5141hm^2，下降幅度为6．34％；7年间的平均人均生态足迹为1．29421hm^2．人均生态足迹由1999年的1．28566hm^2变为2005年的1．06692hm^2，总体上表现为上升的趋势但升中有降；几年均出现生态赤字，反映了宿迁市的生产、生活强度超过了生态系统的承载能力，宿迁市的生态系统处于人们的过度开发利用之下；万元GDP生态足迹逐年下降．为了实现宿迁市的可持续发展，应该采取有效措施，使其生态系统和淌费系统向稳定性方向发展．

ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIAL TRANSFORMATION ABOUT URBAN ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS AND RESEARCHES ABOUT SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT IN SUQIAN

On the basis of concept and model of ecological footprint,this paper caculates supplies and demands of Suqian's ecological footprint from 1997 to 2003.The results suggest :(1) average carrying capacity of Suqian from 1997 to 2003 is 0.529 8 hm~2 per person,and the average ecological footprint decreased from 0.548 9 hm~2 to 0.514 1 hm~2, indicating a decending but stable trend;(2) average ecological footprint is 1.294 21 hm~2 per person during the seven years, and the number increased from 1.285 66 hm~2 in 1997 to 1.066 92 hm~2 in 2003,indicating a increasing trend;(3)existing of eclogical deficit indicates that ecosystem in Suqian is over loading;(4)ecological footprint of GDP per million yuan is decreasing. The land system and consume system have a trend to progress stably.Through analysing conditions of ecological footprint in Suqian during recent years and comparing with other areas , the author points out present problems existing in Suqian,thus supplying a new method for ecological research,ecolgical construction and sustainable development.