复杂系统预期行为仿真的演化建模研究

计算机建模与仿真技术在复杂系统研究中的应用日益受到重视。在复杂系统主动行为划分中,最基本的一类就是预期。这种预期都基于自己内心对外部世界认识的假设模型之上,并不断改进、演化。本文介绍并讨论了复杂系统主体预期行为的演化建模与仿真方法,主要内容包括:理性预期;有限理性;适应有限理性及演化建模,演化计算。讨论了存在的问题,应用前景和发展趋势。

Studies of Evolutionary Modeling of Expectation Behavior Simulation in Complex Systems

There is growing interest in using computer modeling and simulation to explore issues in the complex systems. All complex systems anticipate the future,make predictions on its internal model of the world. So studies of modeling andsimulation of system agents expectation behavior is very important in system study. In this paper the evolutionary modeling and simulation method of expectation behavior was introduced. Inclusion: Rational expectation, bounded rational, evolutionary modeling, evolutionary computation, adaptive bounded rational method, and their application as well asproblem.