限购政策是否降低房地产价格增速?

房地产限购政策是否能够有效控制房价增速是学术界和政策制定者广泛关注的一个重要问题,但至今没有一致结论.本文基于70个大中城市房价月度同比增速数据,利用Hsiao, Ching和Wan提出的面板数据政策评估模型,整体评估了限购政策实施以来对城市房价增速的影响.实证结果表明,限购政策短期内对大多数城市的房价增速发挥了一定抑制作用,但具体政策效果在不同城市分化严重.通过回归分析发现,城市人口规模,绿化环境,小学生人数增速及高校数目显著影响限购政策对控制房价的效果.此外,本文发现2014年底随着限购政策的取消,一二线城市房价增速得到大幅反弹,三线城市反而因为虹吸效应并没有出现反弹.本文研究结论认为,限购政策虽然短期能减少房地产购买需求从而抑制房价增速,但是如果不能改变购房者房价长期预期,一旦限购政策力度放缓则将带来报复式反弹.同时,房地产调控政策应因城施策,依据各个城市经济特征及发展阶段来制定有效措施.

Does the home-purchase restriction policy lower the growth rate of house price?

Whether the home-purchase restriction policy can lower the growth rate of house price is an essential issue for academic researchers and policy makers. However, there has been no conclusive answer so far. Based on the monthly growth rate data of 70 large and medium size cities, this paper uses the panel-data policy evaluation method proposed by Hsiao, Ching and Wan to evaluate the effect of home-purchase restriction policy implementation. The empirical results show that, the home-purchase restriction policy played a role in the early implemented period, but the impact is very heterogeneous among cities. The regression analysis shows that the size of population, living environment, the growth rate of elementary students and the number of universities, significantly affect the impact of home-purchase restriction policy. Furthermore, we find that the policy suspending in the end of 2014 pushed up a round of revenge price boom, especially for first and second tier cities, not for third tier cites due to siphon effect. Our study implies that the home-purchase restriction might suppress the price by reducing the demand in the short term, but its impact will disappear as the suspending of the policy if it cannot change the house price expectation of citizens. Therefore, the government should design real estate control policy package according to the economic characteristic and development stage of each city.