基于NSTPNT的风电系统可靠性对风电预测误差灵敏度

研究电力系统可靠性对风电预测误差的灵敏度,量化风电预测误差对可靠性的影响,可为风电并网系统的优化调度与备用规划提供参考依据.实际风电预测误差的分布未知,给灵敏度计算带来困难.本文首次提出非标准三阶多项式正态变换方法,推导非标准正态假设下多项式系数的解析表达式,实现将风电预测误差转换为同期望,标准差正态随机变量的多项式形式.将转换后的风电预测误差,代入含备用最优负荷削减模型,评估风电系统可靠性.提出可靠性指标对风电预测误差期望,标准差的灵敏度解析算法.算例验证了非标准三阶多项式正态变换方法与预测误差分布参数可靠性灵敏度算法的准确性.分析备用容量与标准差变化对预测误差可靠性灵敏度的影响.

Reliability sensitivity of wind power system to forecast error using NSTPNT method

The research of the sensitivities of the wind power system' reliability indices with respect to the distribution parameters of the wind power forecast error (WPFE) may help the reserve schedule, while the unknown distribution of the WPFE makes it difficult to calculate the sensitivities. The non-standard third-order polynomial normal transformation (NSTPNT) method is novelly proposed. And the analytical expressions of the polynomial coefficients are derived. Based on the NSTPNT, the sensitivities of the reliability indices with respect to the distribution parameters of the WPFE, including the expectation and standard deviation, are established respectively. The numerical results verify the accuracy of the proposed methods. The effects of the reserve capacity and the standard deviation of the WPFE on the reliability sensitivity are analyzed.