中国省际差异化能源转型背景下的CO_2排放预测

为促进中国能源消费转型,减少CO_2排放,本文首先利用俱乐部收敛检验等方法对不同类型化石能源消费的省际差异演变及原因进行实证研究.其次,基于收敛聚类结果利用分层(组)预测方法对不同消费层级未来中短期内的CO_2排放进行预测.研究发现:由于经济发展对煤炭消费的依赖程度不同,各省煤炭消费分别向3个不同水平收敛;在能源强度及结构效应的驱动下,各省石油和天然气消费整体向上收敛.在未来,Clubs2省份将主导全国总的煤炭消费CO_2排放趋势,进而对化石能源总CO_2排放产生显著影响;同时,未来的原油消费将增加总CO_2排放量,而天然气消费具有减排优势;另外,各省CO_2排放量及增速仍将存在较大差异.以上发现对建立特定的区域能源消费及排放政策具有重要启示:Clubs2中的省份是控制煤炭消费,减少CO_2排放的重点区域;严控高收入、重工业省份的原油消费将会进一步降低总CO_2排放量.

The prediction of CO2 emission in the background of China's provincial differentiated energy transformation

In order to promote the transformation of China's energy consumption and reduce CO₂ emissions, this paper first uses the club convergence test method to conduct a detailed empirical study of the differences in the inter-provincial evolution of different types of fossil energy consumption. Then, based on the results of convergence clustering, a hierarchical (group) forecasting method is used to predict short-term CO₂ emissions at different levels. The results show that due to the different dependence of economic development on coal consumption, coal consumption of various provinces converges to three levels. Driven by the energy intensity and structural effects, the province's oil and natural gas consumption have generally converged upward. The forecasts indicate that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will be dominated by coal, which is dominated by the 13 provinces in clubs2. Meanwhile, oil consumption will increase CO₂ emissions, natural gas will reduce total emissions, and provincial CO₂ emissions and its growth rates will still have large differences. These findings have important implications for the establishment of specific regional energy consumption and emission policies:clubs2's provinces are key areas for controlling coal consumption and reducing CO₂ emissions; strictly controlling oil consumption in high-income and heavy-industry provinces will further reduce total CO₂ emissions.