经济政策不确定性,双轮驱动与经济增长

新常态下,中国政府实施了创新和投资双轮驱动经济增长模式,经济政策不确定性的提高是否会显著影响经济增长的双轮驱动效应?为系统回答这一问题,本文首先基于实物期权原理揭示了经济政策不确定性通过投资和创新双轮驱动对经济增长的非线性影响机制,在此基础上设定时变VAR模型实证检验了中国经济政策不确定性通过投资和创新双轮渠道对经济增长的非线性冲击效应.研究发现:中国经济政策不确定性抑制了经济增长,且呈现出时变特征,得益于宏观经济环境的改善,这种抑制效应在新常态后得到了一定程度缓减;在经济政策不确定性干扰下,投资对经济增长的正向驱动效应缓慢降低,而创新对经济增长的正向驱动效应略显增强.政府应保持政策的连续性和一惯性,警惕政策不确定性对经济双轮驱动政策的影响.

Economic policy uncertainty,dual-wheel drive and economic growth

In the new normal, Chinese government has implemented a two-wheel drive economic growth model of innovation and investment. Will the increase in economic policies uncertainty significantly affect the two-wheel drive effect of economic growth, and thus affect the policy effect? To systematically answer this question, this paper first reveals the non-linear effects of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth through investment and innovation driven by two-wheel drive based on the principle of real options. Based on this, the time-varying VAR model is empirically tested to examine the impact of the uncertainty of China's economic policy on economic growth through investment and innovation. We found that:China's economic policy uncertainty inhibited economic growth, and showed a time-varying character, thanks to the improvement of the macroeconomic environment, this inhibition effect has been reduced to some extent after the new normal economy; Under the interference of economic policy uncertainty, the positive driving effect of investment on economic growth has slowly decreased, and the positive driving effect of innovation on economic growth has gradually increased. The government should maintain the continuity and inertia of the policy and be alert to the impact of policy uncertainty on the economic two-wheel drive policy.