基于灰色关联分析的空管安全风险评估

作为民航三大系统之一，空中交通管理（ATM）系统对民航安全起着十分重要的作用。构建了空管安全风险评估指标体系，运用灰色关联分析(GRA)计算出空管安全风险与第一层次因素的关联系数和关联度，以及第一层次因素和相应第二层次因素的关联系数和关联度。结果表明，人的因素是导致空管安全风险的最主要因素，而其中安全意识差对人的因素影响最大。最后本文为空管单位制定风险管理方案提供了建议。

Evaluation of Safety Risk in ATM Based on the Gray Relational Analysis

As one of the three civil aviation systems, Air Traffic Management (ATM) system plays a very important role in security of civil aviation. The risk evaluation index system for ATM was established. According to the Gray Relational Analysis(GRA), the correlation coefficients and correlation degree between safety risk in ATM and the first level factors was calculated, and the correlation coefficients and correlation degree between the first level factors and corresponding second level factors was also calculated. The results show that human factors which have been greatly impacted by poor safety awareness contribute main factors to safety risk in ATM. This paper provides ATM units with recommendations to establish risk management programs.