基于模糊数学的修井井喷风险评价方法

修井井喷是修井工程中性质严重、损失巨大的灾难性事故。防止修井井喷需要修井前对井喷风险进行评价，针对不同风险井区采用不同修井措施。目前井喷风险评价因素中主观因素较多，不能客观的反应地质因素对井喷的影响。本文利用模糊数学方法建立了基于地质因素的修井井喷评价模型，通过权重分析得出储层孔隙压力和破裂压力对修井井喷的影响最大，其次是储层的渗透率。利用本模型对各个井区的修井井喷风险进行分级，针对不同的井喷风险井区采用不同的修井设备，不仅提高了修井安全性，而且可以降低修井成本。

THE METHOD OF WORKOVER BLOWOUT RISK EVALUATION BASED ON FUZZY MATHMATICS

Workover blowout is a serious and huge loss catastrophic accidents. Preventing blowout needs risk evaluation for workover blowout before operation, we could make different measurements due to risk evaluation in different oilfield. Now, workover blowout risk evaluation contains a lot of subjective factor, it could not objectively reflect the influence of Geology factor to blowout. Using fuzzy mathematics, This paper has established the blowout accident safety evaluation model based on geology factor. Pore pressure and fracture pressure are the main influence factors of blowout, permeability of reservoir is following. This model can be used in the blowout risk classification, we could adopt different workover fixture due to risk classification,which not only improves security, but also reduces workover costs.