R&D项目周期和费用的随机网络模拟

本文针对R&D项目的特点 ,首先探讨了利用随机网络技术建立项目仿真模型的步骤和方法 ,并给出了一个典型的R&D项目的随机网络模型 ;随后 ,研究了随机网络模型的模拟求解问题 ,通过编制专用软件 ,对所建立的模型进行了模拟求解 ,获得了项目周期和费用的概率分布和各种统计特征值 ;最后对求解结果进行了讨论分析 ,并对项目的周期和费用进行了统计推断 ,从而为项目周期和费用的决策和控制提供了定量化的参考依据

Stochastic Network Simulation for Duration and Cost of R&D Projects

Aiming at characteristics of R&D projects,the process of constructing simulation model for R&D projects by using stochastic network techniques is presented and a typical stochastic network model of R&D project is given at first.Then the issue on seeking for results of stochastic network model is discussed,and through the special software developed the probability distribution and statistical eigenvalues of duration and cost of the project are obtained.At last,the simulation outcomes are analyzed and the duration and cost of the project are estimated statistically,thus providing quantitative supports for decision and control of the project's duration and cost.