三江并流地区兰坪县地表覆盖类型变化及驱动力研究

本研究运用国家基础地理信息中心提供的GlobeLand30，分析兰坪县2000-2020期不同地表覆盖类型之间的转变趋势；借助GIS空间分析功能，研究高程、坡度、坡向、居民点、道路和耕地对林地变化的影响。结果表明：该县林地、灌木地和湿地面积呈先增后减趋势，草地为持续减少趋势，人造地表呈先减后增趋势，水体和耕地为持续增加趋势，且2010-2020期的总变化率是2000-2010期的17.8倍。该县林地转换率由2000-2010期的6.03%增加到2010-2020期的8.17%，草地由30.90%增长到44.82%，灌木地由45.08%上升为45.24%，主要是由于耕地导致，表明人类活动对林地、灌木地、草地的蚕食较严重。林地变化的活跃度与高程和坡度呈反比，林地变化像元数量与居民点、道路的距离呈三次方衰减，与耕地的距离呈逆模型衰减，表明林地变化受到高程、坡度、坡向的影响，且与居民点、道路、耕地的区位密切相关。本研究结果将有利于兰坪县遗产地的管理规划，为制定合理的生态移民和退耕还林政策提供理论依据。

LAND COVER CHANGE AND ITS DRIVING FORES OF LANPING COUNTY IN THE THREE PARALLEL RIVERS REGION

Globeland30 provided by the national basic geographic information center was used to analyze the changing trend of different land cover in Lanping. With the help of spatial analysis in GIS, the effects of the elevation, slope, aspect, settlements, roads, and cultivated land on the forest change were studied. The results showed that the areas of the forests, shrublands, and wetlands increased first and then decreased, grasslands decreased continuously, artificial land surfaces decreased first and then increased, and water bodies and the cultivated lands increased continuously, and the total change rate from 2010 to 2020 was 17.8 times that from 2000 to 2010. The conversion rates increased from 6.03% in 2000-2010 to 8.17% in 2010-2020 for the forest, increased from 30.90% to 44.82% for the grasslands, and increased from 45.08% to 45.24% for the shrublands, mainly due to the cultivated lands. Those indicated that human activities seriously eroded the forests, shrublands, and grasslands. The activity of the forest changes was inversely proportional to elevation and slope. The number of pixels in forest changes attenuated cubically with the distance between the residential areas and roads, and attenuated with the distance from the cultivated land in an inverse model. It indicated that forest changes were affected by the elevation, slope, aspect, as well as the location of the residential areas, roads, and cultivated lands. The results of this study will benefit the management planning of heritage sites in Lanping county and provide a theoretical basis for formulating reasonable biodiversity protection measures.