| 基于灰色马尔科夫模型的工程成本预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡庆国,徐书苑.基于灰色马尔科夫模型的工程成本预测[J].长沙理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013(4):49-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡庆国 徐书苑 |
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| 作者单位： | 长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410004 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目（桂科转 1298011-2） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对随机波动较大的工程成本预测问题,通过研究过去几年中国一建筑公司承建同类工程的相关数据,建立了灰色GM（1,1）模型,并采用马尔科夫模型分析优化数据.实例分析结果表明,灰色马尔科夫模型用于工程成本的预测结果与实际情况较为一致,说明本研究建立的预测模型合理可靠,具有一定的实用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色GM（1 1）模型 马尔科夫预测模型 工程成本 预测方法 |
Project cost prediction based on grey Markov model |
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| HU Qing-guo,XU Shu-yuan.Project cost prediction based on grey Markov model[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2013(4):49-53. |
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| Authors: | HU Qing-guo XU Shu-yuan |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410004, China;) |
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| Abstract: | According to the prediction problem of project cost which has larger random fluctuations,the similar engineering constructions＇ related data of one company in the past few years are studied,establishing Grey GM （1,1） model,and using Markov Chain analysis optimized data at the same time.The final result shows that the conclusion by the Grey Markov model to forecast project cost is consistent with actual situation,and the forecast model is reasonable and reliable which has a certain practicality. |
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| Keywords: | Grey GM（1 1） model Markov forecast model project cost forecast method |
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