公交车司乘冲突引发事故循环影响研究

为有效提升公交车行驶的安全性,降低事故的发生率,明确司机与乘客(司乘)冲突对公交车事故发生的影响作用,通过系统动力学因果关系回路对事故发生的因果关系进行分析,探究引发事故的相关因素及事故发展与演变过程,并借助微分博弈从微观角度对比分析冲突中止与持续进行对事故发生的不同影响。结果表明,司乘双方均可成为事故的引发者,但司机可引发事故的因素较乘客多,更易导致事故的发生；司乘一方产生不满情绪后,这种情绪既会对自身也会对另一方的情绪与行为产生影响；一定时间内若司乘冲突停止,会降低事故风险,若持续进行,这种情绪与行为会在两者间形成循环性的影响,使双方的情绪反应程度循环累加,导致冲突升级最终引发事故。

Study on the Cyclic Influence of Accident Caused by Conflict between Bus Driver and Passenger

In order to effectively improve the safety of bus driving and reduce the incidence of accidents, and to clarify the role of driver-passenger (driver-passenger) conflicts on the occurrence of bus accidents. This paper analyzes the causality of accidents through the system dynamics causality circuit, and explores the relevant factors that trigger accidents and the development and evolution of accidents. And compare and analyze the different effects of conflict suspension and continuation on accidents occurrence from the micro perspective with the help of the differential game. The results indicate that both drivers and passengers can be initiators of accidents, but drivers have more factors that can cause accidents than passengers and are more likely to cause accidents. When a driver or passenger develops a feeling of dissatisfaction, that feeling can have an impact on both his or her own emotions and behavior and that of the other party. If the conflict between the driver and passenger stops within a certain period of time, it will reduce the risk of accidents. However, if the conflict persists, this kind of emotions and behaviors of both parties will cyclically affect each other, causing a cycle of cumulative emotional reaction levels on both sides, leading to escalation of the conflict ultimately leading to an accident.