| 渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯剑丰,王洪礼,李胜朋. 渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布[J]. 天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版), 2007, 40(10): 1194-1198 |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯剑丰 王洪礼 李胜朋 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津大学机械工程学院,天津300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国博士后科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 赤潮藻类的细胞密度超过一定的阈值就能形成危害巨大的赤潮。基于渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的连续监测数据，运用极值理论研究了藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布特性．研究结果表明，赤潮藻类细胞密度的概率分布有比正态分布更重的尾部，服从Pareto型的超阈值分布函数。通过实际监测数据，建立了渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的Pareto型超阈值分布函数，并通过该函数计算了藻类细胞密度分别超过给定阈值的风险概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 渤海湾 赤潮 广义Pareto分布 |
| 文章编号： | 0493-2137（2007）10-1194-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-01 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-11 |
Peak-over-Threshold Distribution of Concentration of Harmful Algae in Bohai Bay |
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| FENG Jian-feng,WANG Hong-li,LI Sheng-peng. Peak-over-Threshold Distribution of Concentration of Harmful Algae in Bohai Bay[J]. Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology), 2007, 40(10): 1194-1198 |
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| Authors: | FENG Jian-feng WANG Hong-li LI Sheng-peng |
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| Abstract: | When the concentration of algae exceeds a threshold, there will be harmful algal blooms. Based on the data of concentration of harmful algae in Bohai Bay, using extreme value theory, the peak-over-threshold distribution of the algae concentration was analyzed. It demonstrates that the distribution of algae concentration is generalized Pareto distribution, which has a heavier tail than normal distribution. Based on the real field data, a generalized Pareto distribution function of the algae concentration was obtained. And the peak-over-threshold risk probabilities of different algae concentrations were calculated. |
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| Keywords: | Bohai Bay harmful algae blooms generalized Pareto distribution |
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