电熔镁砂企业生产计划多目标优化

针对大部分电熔镁砂生产企业都是产能有限的小工厂，在销售旺季时会损失超过自身产能的订单；在销售淡季时又容易积压库存的问题，提出了基于需求预测的多目标生产计划优化方法.该方法利用基于季节性自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）模型向前多步预测市场的需求量，并建立销量与库存累积量的多目标优化模型.设计了关键月度产量计划后推法求解模型得到了决策者满意的优化目标.对预测过程中存在的偏差，利用实时反馈得到的真实销售数据修正预测结果，进而调整优化模型，校正后期产量计划.实际应用效果证明，按所提方法得到的产量计划能够实时地反映市场需求的动态变化，并实现了库存与销量的多目标优化.

Multi-objective Optimization of Fused Magnesium Enterprises Production Plan

Most of fused magnesium enterprises are productivity-limited factories,which will lose the orders that surpass their capacity in midseason and will overstock in off-season.Therefore,it was proposed to multi-step forward predict requirements based on seasonal ARIMA model and to build the multi-objective optimization model of sales and stocks.A backward derivation method was designed to establish production plan,which can get the satisfying results.Aiming at prediction error,the real sales data are fed back t...