支持路径分析的仿真因果追溯分析方法

通过因果追溯分析对仿真结果作出因果解释是仿真非常重要的一个环节.为了支持因果分析,首先提出扩展事件图,以重构仿真中发生的事件以及事件之间的因果关系;然后根据对图模型的概率参数,分析最可能作用路径和最主要作用路径,以获取更多的知识;最后以一个导弹攻防对抗仿真为例,对以上方法进行了必要的验证.

Causal Tracing Analysis in Simulation for Path Analysis

Causal explanation of simulation results by causal tracing analysis is one of important parts of simulation. To support causal analysis, extended event graph (EEG) was put forward to rebuild the events and their causal relations happened in simulation. Then, some analysis algorithms were proposed, from which user could gain most probable path and most important path through the analysis of probability parameter in graph model. At last, these methods were validated by an missile engagement simulation.