Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes |
| |
Authors: | WeiHong Qian Bo Lu |
| |
Institution: | Monsoon and Environment Research Group, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
| |
Abstract: | Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s. |
| |
Keywords: | global-mean temperature solar radiation long-term trend decadal warm period periodic oscillations |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
| 点击此处可从《中国科学通报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国科学通报(英文版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |