| 基于灰色系统理论的沥青路面使用性能预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜二鹏,马松林,景海民. 基于灰色系统理论的沥青路面使用性能预测[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 38(8): 1161-1164. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2010.08.011 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜二鹏 马松林 景海民 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 同济大学,道路与交通工程系,上海,200092;天津市市政公路管理局,天津,300050
2. 哈尔滨工业大学,交通学院,哈尔滨,150090 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用灰色系统理论方法,分别对路面强度指数、路面状况指数和路面平整度指标进行了建模和预测.利用实际路面检测数据进行模型的检验和修正,并与传统的回归分析模型进行对比.结果表明,对于公路路面这种比较离散的技术状况评价指标值,采用灰色预测方法精度有较大的提高,能够满足路面使用性能预测的要求.
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| 关 键 词： | 公路养护 半刚性沥青路面 路用性能 预测模型 灰色理论 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-04-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-05-24 |
Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Model Based on Gray System Theory |
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| DU Erpeng,MA Songlin and JING Haimin. Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction Model Based on Gray System Theory[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science), 2010, 38(8): 1161-1164. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-374x.2010.08.011 |
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| Authors: | DU Erpeng MA Songlin JING Haimin |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Road and Traffic Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;Tianjin Municipal Highway Administration Bureau, Tianjin 300050, China;College of Transportation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China;College of Transportation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the method of the gray system theory,the prediction models of pavement structure strength index,pavement conditions index and the pavement roughness are obtained respectively.The prediction models are validated and modified through the actual road test data,and compared with the traditional model of regression analysis.The results show that for predicting such discrete target value of pavement surface condition,the gray prediction method can improve the accuracy,and meet the requirements of pavement performance prediction. |
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| Keywords: | highway maintenance semi-rigid asphalt pavement pavement performance prediction model gray theory |
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