政府驱动下新能源汽车分时租赁的演化博弈分析

考虑到新能源汽车分时租赁是优化交通结构、节能减排的有效措施，而且其运营安全、信用体系、政府补贴等方面亦亟待解决和规范，从政府驱动的视角研究了新能源汽车分时租赁的演化博弈。该研究基于演化博弈理论构建了政府、企业和出行者三方博弈模型，探讨了系统演化稳定策略，并运用Matlab 7.0软件仿真分析了相关参数变动的演化路径。结果表明：政府驱动是新能源汽车分时租赁市场健康稳定发展的有力推动因素；政府公共投入对企业的激励作用明显，企业补贴的激励作用随着时间推进会减弱；消费者注重出行体验和对价格敏感；政府应适时退出市场扶持。该研究从加强宏观调控、精准联合施策、完善退出机制方面提出了建议。

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Time-sharing Lease of New Energy Vehicles Driven by Government

Considering that time-sharing lease of new energy vehicles is an effective measure to optimize the traffic structure and save energy and reduce emissions, meanwhile its operation safety, credit system, government subsidies and other aspects also need to be solved and urgently standardized, a study on the evolutionary game of new energy vehicles'' time-sharing lease was conducted from the perspective of government driving. The study constructed the game model for the 3 parts of enterprise, traveler and government based on the basic theory of evolutionary game, discussed the stable strategy of system evolution, and simulated and analyzed the evolution path of relative parameter''s change by Matlab 7.0 software simulation. The result shows that: government-driven is a powerful driving force for the healthy and stable development of the new energy vehicles'' time-sharing lease market; government public investment has obvious incentive effect on enterprises, and the incentive effect of enterprise subsidies will weaken with time; consumers focus on travel experience and price sensitivity, the government should withdraw from market support in due course. The study put forward some suggestions from the aspects of strengthening macro-control, precise joint policy and perfecting exit mechanism.