基于SD的老旧住宅高能耗形成机理及改造策略研究

北方城镇老旧住宅在全寿命周期中消费了大量能源和资源，对构建节约型社会、推动绿色发展造成巨大影响。本文以包头市为例，通过构建系统动力学模型，在考虑老旧住宅高能耗影响因素前提下，对2016~2030年居住建筑能源消耗进行预测研究，并通过情景分析来模拟不同强度的影响因素对能源消耗总量的影响，为老旧住宅节能改造政策提供现实依据。研究结果表明：科技、碳减排、教育投入的增加、使用能效等级更低的家用电器、按照新版建筑规范改变传热系数等参数、居住者用能行为的改善，使用设备频率低、时间短都会不同程度的降低老旧住宅的能耗。因此，政府应加大一定财政投入，提高科研能力和居住者节能意识，改善老旧住宅围护结构的传热系数。此外，各家电企业应更积极推出高效节能的家用设备。

Study on Formation Mechanism and Transformation Strategy of High Energy Consumption of Old Residential Buildings Based on SD

The old residential in northern cities consume lots of energy and resources in the whole life cycle, which has a great impact on building a conservation oriented society and promoting green development. This paper takes Baotou City as an example, through the construction of system dynamics model, under the premise of considering the influence factors of high energy consumption in old residential areas, carries out prediction research on energy consumption of residential buildings from 2016 to 2030, and simulates the impact of different intensity factors on the total energy consumption through scenario analysis, so as to provide practical basis for energy-saving transformation policies of old residential areas. Increasing investment in technology, carbon emission reduction, education, using household appliances with lower energy efficiency levels, changing parameters such as heat transfer coefficients in accordance with the new building codes, improving occupants'' energy use behavior, and using equipment with low frequency and short time will all vary to varying degrees reduce energy consumption in old houses.Therefore, the government should increase the financial investment, improve the scientific research ability and the occupants''awareness of energy conservation,and improve the heat transfer coefficient of old houses.In addition,all appliances enterprises should actively launch high-efficiency and energy-saving household equipment.