| 世界一次能源替代的系统动力学模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡福安.世界一次能源替代的系统动力学模型[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),1994(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡福安 |
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| 作者单位： | 石油大学管理系 |
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| 摘 要： | 把化石燃料资源、环境流动能源、能源炼制工业和社会经济活动（经济设施）耦合在一起，建立了世界工业社会的能源经济动态模型，当模型受到质量更高的新能源开始渗透到能源市场的影响时。就产生了一次能源替代趋势，从而再现和模拟了世界一次能源替代的历史和长期发展趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源替代 系统动力学 模型 |
DYNAMIC MODELS OF SUBSTITUTION SYSTEMS OF PRIMARY ENERGY IN THE WORLD |
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| Cai Fuan.DYNAMIC MODELS OF SUBSTITUTION SYSTEMS OF PRIMARY ENERGY IN THE WORLD[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum,1994(5). |
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| Authors: | Cai Fuan |
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| Abstract: | Fosill fule resources,environmental flow resources, energy-refinery industryand social-economical activites are combined to develop an energy-based dynamic model of theworld'industry in this paper.The model can generate intersubstitution of one energy fromanother when it is subjected to the effect of market penetration of new energy forms,Byjudicious selection of selected energetic parameters,the historical world's primary energysubstitution patterns are replicated.The model is then used to evaluate future energyoptions. |
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| Keywords: | Energy substitution:System dynamics Model |
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