科技开发区发展预测模型及其应用

本文应用系统工程中的有关预测理论和预测技木,对近年来在我国兴起的科技开发区和新技术产业开发区的发展状况进行了分析,首次建立了科技开发区发展预测模型,提出了模型中两个动态变量的处理方案;并应用模型,对重庆市沙坪坝科技产业开发试验区今后几年的主要发展指标进行了预测。此发展预测模型可广泛用于新技术产业开发区、科技开发区以及其他类似社会经济系统未来发展状况的预测。

THE FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS USE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ZONES

The model for forecasting the development of the Science and Technology Development Zones(STDZ) and the High Technology Industry Developrhedt Zones (HTIDZ) is created with the help, of the forecasting theory and technology in system engineering, A scheme for handling the dynamic variables in the model is proposed. The development targets of the Chongqing Shapingba Science and Technology Development Zone in the coming six years are forecasted .by using the model. The model can be used widely to forecast the development of STDZ and HTIDZ and other similar social and economical systems.