基于集对分析的区域产业结构演进特征与机理探究——以榆林市为例

产业结构是区域经济发展水平的重要标志，产业结构变动关系到资源配置和经济发展效益。运用集对分析理论和产业转换速度与方向系数，分析了1991—2005年榆林市产业结构演进的特征与机理。结果显示：①1991-2005年榆林市产业结构演变大致分为缓慢平稳演进阶段、强烈震荡调整阶段、快速平稳演进阶段；②固定资产投资增长与产业结构演进相似，也呈现类似的3个阶段。一产固定资产投资增长速度较快，主要是因为其基数小，而二产固定资产投资额度大，增长慢；③榆林市产业结构与就业结构极不对称，2005年两者分别呈现“二、三、一”和“一、三、二”格局．从1991-2005年就业结构演变趋势分析，其结构正向合理方向演进；④1991—2005年榆林市产业结构转换速度较快，方向基本合理，第一产业比例下降，第二产业比例上升的趋势明显。总之，榆林市产业结构正处于从较低水平向高水平演进的工业化过程中。图2，表2，参15。

Study on Characteristics and Mechanism of Regional Industrial Structure Evolution based on Set Pair Analysis Method

Industrial structure is regarded as an important indicator of the regional economic development,and its evolution relates to allocation of resource and quality of economic development. Based on the theory of Set Pair Analysis（SPA） and the index of industrial structure evolution, the paper analyses characteristics and mechanism of industrial structure evolution in Yulin from 1991 to 2005. The result indicates ：① industrial structure evolution generally can be divided three periods：slowly stable evolution, intensively variational adjustment, rapidly stable evolution; ② fixedasset investment appears similarly three periods just as industrial structure evolution. The fixed-asset investment of the primary industry increases rapidly because of its small radix, on the contrary, that of the secondary industry rises slowly;③the industrial structure doesn＇ t match with the employment structure, the proportion of industries follows ＂secondary, tertiary and primary ＂order, that of the later is ＂primary, tertiary and secondary＂ . From the analysis of change trend of employment structure from 1991 to 2005,its structure has evolved into reasonable direction. ④ there are several characteristics of Yulin＇ s industrial structure： rapid conversion speed, reasonable direction, decline proportion of primary industry, obviously increasing trend of secondary industry proportion. In a word, Yulin＇ s industrial structure has been in the course of industrialization changing from low level to high period.