基于ANP与ArcGIS的城市火灾风险评估

城市火灾风险评估对于降低火灾损失具有重要作用，但建立简便高效的风险评估模型一直是难点与热点问题。本文在充分调查分析西安市临潼区火灾危险度、区域特征性、防灾减灾能力的基础上，建立西安市临潼区火灾风险评估指标体系。选出火灾载荷密度、重大危险源空间分布、重点消防单位面积、消防供水能力等10个评价指标，采用网络层次分析法(analytic network process, ANP)结构运算确定各评价指标的权重。以500 m*500 m的渔网作为评价单元，构建火灾风险评估模型，并利用ArcGIS空间分析功能进行指标量化、评价单元划分、评价模型运算，最终得到西安市临潼区火灾风险评估图。评估结果显示：西安市临潼区火灾风险整体成南高北低的趋势，高风险区域占1.81%，中风险区域占5.82%，次风险区域占16.85%，低风险区域占75.53%，火灾高风险区域主要集中在骊山、斜口、代王、新丰、北田五个街道办。据现场实际调查，这些街道办人口和建筑密集，重大危险源较多，说明所建风险评估模型准确可靠，简便高效，可为火灾孕灾环境类似的其它城市火灾风险评估提供有益借鉴。

Urban Fire Risk Assessment Based on ANP and ArcGIS

Urban fire risk assessment plays an important role in reducing fire losses, but establishing a simple and efficient risk assessment model has always been a difficult and hot issue. The fire risk assessment index system was established on the basis of full investigation and analysis of fire hazard, regional characteristics, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in Lintong District of Xi''an City. Ten evaluation indicators including fire load density, spatial distribution of major hazard sources, key firefighting unit area, and fire water supply capacity were selected, and the weight of each evaluation indicator was determined by using the analytic network process (ANP) structural operation. The 500 m*500 m fishing net was used as the evaluation unit to construct a fire risk assessment model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis function was used to perform index quantification, evaluation unit division, and evaluation model operation, and finally the fire risk assessment map of Lintong District was obtained. As the evaluation result show that the overall fire risk in Lintong District is higher in the south and lower in the north, high-risk areas accounted for 1.81%, medium-risk areas accounted for 5.82%, sub-risk areas accounted for 16.85%, and low-risk areas accounted for 75.53%, high fire risk areas are mainly concentrated in the five sub-district offices of Lishan, Xiekou, Daiwang, Xinfeng and Beitian. According to the actual investigation on site, these sub-district offices are densely populated and have many major danger sources, indicating that the established risk assessment model is accurate, reliable, simple and efficient, and can provide a useful reference for fire risk assessment in other cities with similar fire-pregnancy environments.