| 基于非集计模型的交通需求预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王凤群,王晓原,苏跃江. 基于非集计模型的交通需求预测方法[J]. 山东理工大学学报：自然科学版, 2009, 23(2): 7-12,16 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王凤群 王晓原 苏跃江 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东理工大学交通与车辆工程学院智能交通研究所,山东淄博255049 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金，山东省社会科学规划研究项目，山东理工大学重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 交通需求预测是城市规划和城市交通规划的核心内容之一,同时也是制定交通需求管理（TDM）策略的基础.传统的预测模型多以“四阶段法”为基础,对调查数据进行集计处理,忽略数据所携带的有关出行者行为的个体信息,存在信息的浪费和冗余.依据现代交通规划学理论,在回顾传统预测方法的基础上,对非集计模型进行深入研究;根据淄博市中心城区居民出行调查数据,预测居民出行方式分担率.研究结果表明,较集计模型,非集计方法能更好地刻画居民出行方式选择行为.
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| 关 键 词： | 非集计模型 方式划分 交通需求预测 交通规划 |
Forecast method of traffic demand based on disaggregate model |
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| WANG Feng-qun,WANG Xiao-yuan,SU Yue-jiang. Forecast method of traffic demand based on disaggregate model[J]. Journal of Shandong University of Technology:Science and Technology, 2009, 23(2): 7-12,16 |
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| Authors: | WANG Feng-qun WANG Xiao-yuan SU Yue-jiang |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Intelligent Transportation;School of Traffic and Vehicle Engineering;Shandong University of Technology;Zibo 255049;China |
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| Abstract: | Traffic demand forecast is the key content of city planning and traffic planning,and also the basis for mapping out the strategy of traffic demand management.Most of the traditional models are based on "four-stage method",and the aggregate data ignore the useful individual information of travelers.According to the modern transportation planning theory,after a review of traditional models,disaggregate model was studied intensively in this paper.Based on person trip survey of the urban dstrict in zibo city,th... |
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| Keywords: | disaggregate model modal split traffic demand forecast traffic planning |
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