气候变化对商丘冬小麦生育期的影响

利用商丘农业气象观测站1981—2013年冬小麦物候期观测资料、同期气象观测资料,采用一次线性函数分析法分析了冬小麦生育期间气象因素和生育期变化特征,并采用相关分析法分析了气候变化对生育期的影响.结果表明:1冬小麦各生育阶段及全生育期平均气温均呈上升趋势;降水量在越冬至返青期、拔节至乳熟期呈增多趋势,其他阶段呈减少趋势,全生育期呈减少趋势;日照时数在返青至乳熟期呈增多趋势,其他生育期呈减少趋势,全生育期呈减少趋势.2从起身到开花期、成熟期均存在不同程度的提前趋势,播种至返青期、乳熟期呈微弱的推迟趋势.3开花到乳熟期、抽穗到开花期间隔天数的增加趋势达到极显著水平.4影响冬小麦物候期变化最显著的气象因子是平均气温,且物候期与平均气温绝大多数时段呈负相关.5冬小麦返青到起身期对气候变化最为敏感,其次是起身到拔节期、抽穗到开花期和乳熟到成熟期.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Growth Period of Winter Wheat in Shangqiu

Based on the winter wheat phenology observation data and meteorological observation data of Shangqiu agricultural meteorological stations from 1981 to 2013,using linear function analysis we studied meteorological factors and growth stage variation during the growing period of winter wheat,and analyzed the impact of climate change on the growth period by correlation analysis method. The results show as follows：①The average temperature of winter wheat in different growth stages and the whole growing period showed an upward trend;Precipitation in winter solstice turning green stage,jointing stage to milk stage showed an increasing trend in the other stages,while the whole growth period decreased;Sunshine duration in returning green stage to milk stage showed an increasing trend,while the other stages showed a decreasing trend in the whole growth period decreased. ②From the standing to blossom period , mature period showed the trend of the advance,sowing to reviving stage,milk stage was postponed a tittle.③Blossom to milk stage,heading to blossom increased interval days reached the extremely significant level.④The most significant meteorological factors affecting winter wheat phenology is average temperature ,phenology is negatively correlated with the average temperature of the vast majority period.⑤Winter wheat standing to reviving is most sensitive to climate change,followed by standing to jointing,heading to blossom stage,and milk ripe to maturity stage.