Heuristic analogy in Ars Conjectandi: From Archimedes' De Circuli Dimensione to Bernoulli's theorem

This article investigates the way in which Jacob Bernoulli proved the main mathematical theorem that undergirds his art of conjecturing—the theorem that founded, historically, the field of mathematical probability. It aims to contribute a perspective into the question of problem-solving methods in mathematics while also contributing to the comprehension of the historical development of mathematical probability. It argues that Bernoulli proved his theorem by a process of mathematical experimentation in which the central heuristic strategy was analogy. In this context, the analogy functioned as an experimental hypothesis. The article expounds, first, Bernoulli's reasoning for proving his theorem, describing it as a process of experimentation in which hypothesis-making is crucial. Next, it investigates the analogy between his reasoning and Archimedes' approximation of the value of π, by clarifying both Archimedes' own experimental approach to the said approximation and its heuristic influence on Bernoulli's problem-solving strategy. The discussion includes some general considerations about analogy as a heuristic technique to make experimental hypotheses in mathematics.