| 基于贝叶斯理论的大坝体系可靠度计算方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐强,陈健云,李静,范书立.基于贝叶斯理论的大坝体系可靠度计算方法[J].大连理工大学学报,2011,51(1):84-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐强 陈健云 李静 范书立 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连理工大学土木工程学院;大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | “九七三”国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2007CB714107); 教育部新世纪优秀人才计划资助项目(NCET-06-0270); 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50978043) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了大坝体系可靠度的改进计算方法.首先,通过响应面法拟合极限状态函数,进而通过JC法求出大坝单元的失效概率.然后,通过设定失效模式,以复合极限状态函数为准则,搜索出相应的失效路径;基于贝叶斯公式和Cauchy-Schwarz不等式,通过推导得出大坝以某种失效模式失效时的失效概率的上限,从而得出大坝整个体系的可靠度.最...
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯公式 Cauchy-Schwarz不等式 体系可靠度 响应面法 失效路径 极限状态函数 |
Calculation method for system reliability of dam based on Bayes theory |
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| XU Qiang,CHEN Jianyun,LI Jing,FAN Shuli.Calculation method for system reliability of dam based on Bayes theory[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2011,51(1):84-89. |
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| Authors: | XU Qiang CHEN Jianyun LI Jing FAN Shuli |
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| Institution: | XU Qiang1,CHEN Jian-yun1,2,LI Jing1,FAN Shu-li 1(1.School of Civil Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China,2.State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering,China) |
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| Abstract: | An improved calculation method for system reliability of dam is proposed.Firstly,through fitting limit state function by response surface method,the failure probability of dam units was obtained by JC method.Then,the failure paths were searched by setting failure mode according to composite limit state function,and based on Bayes formula and Cauchy-Schwarz inequality,the upper limit of failure probability for failure mode and system reliability of dam were deduced.Finally,according to the criterion,seismic ... |
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| Keywords: | Bayes formula Cauchy-Schwarz inequality system reliability response surface method failure path limit state function |
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