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| 基于不同气候变化情景的东江流域水资源量预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 邓晓宇,张强,李剑锋,孙鹏,陈晓宏.基于不同气候变化情景的东江流域水资源量预测研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2015,54(2):141-149. |
| 作者姓名： | 邓晓宇 张强 李剑锋 孙鹏 陈晓宏 |
| 作者单位： | 1中山大学地理科学与规划学院∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室，广东 广州 510275； 2 宿州学院地球科学与工程学院，安徽 宿州 234000； 3 香港中文大学地理与资源管理系，香港 沙田 |
| 基金项目： | 新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划资助项目(201331104);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(51425903) |
| 摘 要： | 采用半分布式水文模型HSPF,结合1978-1998年东江流域实测气象数据和5个气候模式在3种RCP气候情景(RCP8.5,RCP4.5,RCP2.6)下基准期(1960-2000年)和未来时期(2020-2070年)降水、蒸发情景模拟结果,在对东江流域径流模拟检验基础上,对2020-2070年东江流域水资源量做了深入分析。结果表明,HSPF模型能很好模拟东江流域年、月径流以及洪水期径流变化,博罗站的NASH系数均超过0.81,PBIAS低于10%,RSR低于0.45;所选取气候模式能很好的反映研究流域气象数据在年内分布情况。对未来气候和东江流域水资源量模拟结果表明:1 2020-2070年不同气候变化情景下东江流域降水及蒸发量在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下均呈上升趋势,而在RCP8.5情景下,东江流域蒸发量则呈现下降趋势;2未来东江流域多年月均径流量呈增加趋势;3未来东江流域不同频率下的洪水和枯水流量均呈不同程度的增长。相对于基准期,未来时期的洪水天数呈增长趋势,洪水灾害有加剧态势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 气候模式 HSPF模型 东江流域 水文模拟 径流预测 |
Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin |
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| DENG Xiaoyu,ZHANG Qiang,LI Jianfeng,SUN Peng,CHEN Xiaohong.Forecasting Evaluations of Water Resources under Climate Scenarios in the East River Basin[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2015,54(2):141-149. | |
| Authors: | DENG Xiaoyu ZHANG Qiang LI Jianfeng SUN Peng CHEN Xiaohong |
| Institution: | 1. School of Geography and Planning ∥Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 2. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Suzhou University, Anhui 234000; 3. Department of Geography and Resource Management, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China |
| Abstract: | The East River basin is the principle source of water supply for megacities in/in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. In this study, water resources during 2020-2070 are evaluated under different climate scenarios based on outputs of 5 GCMs. The climate scenarios are RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. Besides, downscaling procedure was done based on observed data covering the period of 1960-2000. The period of 1960-2000 was taken as the base period. HSPF model was used in hydrological modeling. The results indicate that: ① The HSPF model performs well in the hydrological simulation practice with NASH coefficient of over 0.81，PBIAS and RSR less than 10% and 0.45. The scenarios can well mirror the annual distribution of meteorological variables. ② The precipitation and evaporation during 2020-2070 under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios increase and evaporation decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. ③ The period of 2020-2070 will witness increasing monthly streamflow and also high/low flow regimes. Besides, when compared to the base period, the period of 2020-2070 will witness increasing flooding days . Flood risk will be significantly enhancing. |
| Keywords: | climate model HSPF model the East River basin hydrological modeling streamflow forecasting |
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