| 带阶跃趋势的GM（1,1）及其在电力负荷中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周漪清,王小平.带阶跃趋势的GM（1,1）及其在电力负荷中的应用[J].五邑大学学报(自然科学版),2001,15(4):32-36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周漪清 王小平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江门市广播电视大学,
2. 五邑大学交通工程与自动化系, |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种带有阶跃趋势的改进型GM（1,1）模型，这种改进的灰色模型能够更好地适应带阶趋势的序列数据。同时该模型参数计算量大为减少，通过电力负荷实例的分析表明，这种改进的GM（1,1)模型更精确、合理。能够大大地提高预测精度和拓宽GM（1,1)的应用范围。这种带阶跃趋势的改进模型可以成为电力负荷预测的理想工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 阶跃趋势 预测精度 灰色模型 参数估算 电力负荷预测 GM(1 1)模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7302(2001)04-0032-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年3月7日 |
A GM(1,1) Model with Jump Trend and Its Application in a Eleitric Power Load |
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| ZHOU Yi-qing,WANG Xiao-ping.A GM(1,1) Model with Jump Trend and Its Application in a Eleitric Power Load[J].Journal of Wuyi University(Natural Science Edition),2001,15(4):32-36. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yi-qing WANG Xiao-ping |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Yi-qing1,WANG Xiao-ping2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose an improved GM(1,1) model with jump trend. By means of the new method, the grey model is better adapted to the data serial with jump trend. The calculating volume of parameters estimation of the GM(1,1) model with jump trend is decreased greatly. The analyses of an electric power load example shows that the improved GM(1,1) model is more accurate and rational. By using this improved model, we can greatly enhance the forcasting precision and widen the application range of GM(1,1). This improved model with jump trend can be the ideal tool in the electric power load forcasting. |
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| Keywords: | jump trend forcasting precision grey model parameters estimation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
