上海市岸滩冲淤等级划分及其在风险评估中的应用

海岸滩涂是沿海地区经济发展和生态系统平衡等的重要组成部分，虽一直受到国际学术界的极大关注，但其等级评估研究目前仍处于起步阶段，缺乏统一标准，不利于对岸滩的综合开发和治理．本在综合考虑了目前长江河口区和杭州湾北岸水动力机制、沉积、地貌的基础上，将上海市目前重要的岸滩按冲淤强度分为强淤涨型、弱淤涨型、侵蚀型和稳定型四个等级，并在重点分析海平面上升和人类活动对岸滩冲淤的影响后，预测至2030年上海市岸滩冲淤强度可分为五个等级，即强淤涨型、弱淤涨型、强侵蚀型、弱侵蚀型和稳定型，并进而讨论了这种分级在风险评估中的应用。

Grade Compartmentalization of Shanghai Beaches and Its Application in Risk Evaluation

Because beaches have important effect on economical development and ecosystem of coastal area, they have been heavily attended all the while by international scholars. However, the research of grade evaluation is presently still in its beginning for lack of uniform standard, which makes against the synthetical exploitation and fathering of beaches. Based on synthetically considering the watery dynamic mechanism, sedimentation and landform of Yangtse Estuarine area and the north bank of Hangzhou Bay, the article compartmentalized the beaches of Shanghai four kind of strong deposition, faint deposition, erosion and stablilization according to the intensity of eroding and depositing. And by analyzing the effect of sea level rising and human activity on beach deposition and erosion, the beaches of Shanghai are compartmentalized into five kind beaches of strong deposition, faint deposition, strong erosion, faint erosion and stablilization, further, the application of this grade compartmentalization in risk evaluation is discussed in the article.