| 股 价 房 价 波 动 与 经 济 周 期 关 系 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓燊,杨朝军. 股 价 房 价 波 动 与 经 济 周 期 关 系[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2008, 42(11): 1797-1801 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓燊 杨朝军 |
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| 作者单位： | (上海交通大学 a.网络教育学院， 上海 200030； b.安泰经济与管理学院， 上海 200052) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过模型推导和实证分析研究了股价波动、房价波动与经济周期之间的相互关系，构建了一个分析三者之间关系的统一框架.理论分析和实证结果表明，股价是宏观经济的领先指标，房价与GDP、利率和CPI 具有紧密的正向关系，房价波动与经济周期基本同步，股价波动大大领先房价波动.
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| 关 键 词： | 股价 房价 波动 经济周期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-12-27 |
The Relationship between Fluctuations of Stock & Real Estate Prices and Business Cycles |
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| DENG Shen,YANG Chao-jun. The Relationship between Fluctuations of Stock & Real Estate Prices and Business Cycles[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2008, 42(11): 1797-1801 |
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| Authors: | DENG Shen YANG Chao-jun |
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| Affiliation: | （a.Network Education College, Shanghai 200030; b.Antai College of Economics & Management,
Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper discussed the relationship between fluctuations of stock & real estate prices and business cycles with model deduction and empirical evidence. A unite model analysing their relationship was found.The findings reveal that stock prices are the lead indicator of macroeconomy; there exists positive relationship between real estate prices and GDP, interest rates & CPI; the fluctuations of real estate prices are consistent with business cycles; and the fluctuations of stock prices greatly lead that of real estate prices. |
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