“Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure |
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| Institution: | 1. Physics Department and Research Center OPTIMAS, University Kaiserslautern, Erwin-Schrödinger-Straße, D-67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany;2. Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Material- und Geowissenschaften, Fachgebiet Materialmodellierung, Darmstadt, Germany;1. Dipartimento di Informatica, Università degli Studi Aldo Moro di Bari, via Orabona, 4, 70125 Bari, Italy;2. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica ed Informazione, Politecnico di Bari, via Orabona, 4, 70125 Bari, Italy;1. Department of Chemistry, UGC-Centre of Advance Studies-II, Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, 143 005, India;2. Department of Chemical Sciences, IK Gujral Punjab Technical University, Kapurthala, 144 601, Punjab, India;1. Unit of PharmacoEpidemiology & PharmacoEconomics (PE2), Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands;2. Mihajlovi? Health Analytics, Novi Sad, Serbia;3. Tolley Health Economics Ltd, Buxton, United Kingdom;4. Department of Pharmaceutical and Pharmacological Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the “degree of agreement.” Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support. |
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| Keywords: | Uncertainty Confidence Agreement Consensus Climate science Support IPCC |
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