中国第三产业与城市化水平的定量分析

通过中国第三产业与城市化水平之间的定量关系研究，旨在揭示现阶段第三产业与城市化相互作用的内在机理．根据《中国统计年鉴》（2007年）提供的数据分析后认为，1989—2006年第三产业的产值和城镇居民比重均为1（2）单整非平稳时间序列，第三产业和城镇居民比重是一阶协整关系，我国第三产业与城市化水平足正相关．但通过Granger因果关系检验发现，第二二产业的发展不显著地影响城镇居民比重的增长，城镇居民比重的增长也不显著地影响第三产业的发展，这一结果值得进一步探讨．第三产业的发展对城市化水平的影响是滞后的．指出在推进城市化进程中不能忽略第三产业的发展．

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE TERTIARY INDUSTRY AND URBANIZATION OF CHINA

Through quantitative analysis between the tertiary industry and urban residents proportion of China, the purpose is to show the mutual intrinsic mechanism between the tertiary industry and the level of urbanization mechanism. According to analysis the datum that ＂Chinese statistical yearbook ＂ （2007） offered, the output value of the tertiary industry and urban residents proportion in 1989 - 2006 are I （2） series, and there are co - integration relationship between the tertiary industry and urban residents proportion, the tertiary industry and the level of urbanization are in positive correlation. Through Granger causality test, the development of the tertiary industry does not influence the growth of urban residents proportion remarkably, the growth of urban residents proportion also does not influence the development of the tertiary industry remarkably, so this result deserves the discussion further.