水果供给与需求关系组合分析模型的构建及应用

为了对水果的供求关系进行系统分析,基于预期理论,采用理论演绎与经验归纳相结合的方法,建立了水果的供给与需求关系组合分析模型.以葡萄为例,对中国葡萄的供给与需求关系进行了模拟分析.结果表明:中国葡萄的供给、价格和需求都与前期值有显著的相关关系;葡萄替代品价格的变动对葡萄的价格变动有明显的影响,但对葡萄的供给和需求影响不显著;进口葡萄已经对中国的葡萄市场造成了明显的冲击;葡萄的加工和出口需求对中国葡萄的需求拉动的作用没有体现出来.另外,葡萄的供给量的增长并没有导致葡萄价格的下降,这也说明,从葡萄的生产数量上看,中国的葡萄还有一定的发展空间.

The Construction and Application of an Analyzing Combinatorial Model on the Relation between Fruits Supply and Demand

In order to analyze the relationship between fruits supply and demand,On the basis of combining the expectation theory with the experience deducing,an analyzing combinatorial model on the relation between fruits supply and demand is developed in this paper.Taken grape as an example,the model on the relation between grape supply and demand in China was set up,and the relation among grape supply,price and demand in China is analyzed.The result shows that the supply,price and demand of grape have remarkable connections with their former status.The price of substitute products has remarkable influence on grape price,but has no obvious influence on the supply and demand.However the import also has a visibly negative impact on the domestic grape market.And the export and processing have no positive influence on the increase of the aggregate demand for grape.In additional,the increase of grape supply does not necessarily lead to the falling of grape price.Finally,characteristic of grape market and the problems existing in China are probed.