| 基于仿真技术的水利工程项目进度与费用的风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈菊琴,陈军飞,欧阳芳. 基于仿真技术的水利工程项目进度与费用的风险评价[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2004, 32(1): 123-126 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈菊琴 陈军飞 欧阳芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学国际工商学院,江苏,南京,210098;河海大学计财处,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 讨论水利工程建设项目进度和费用的风险，建立了基于三角分布的网络计划进度和费用风险评价的随机模拟模型．通过统计分析得到进度和费用的模拟概率分布，进而得到进度和费用风险曲线，为评价工程项目的风险提供了依据．最后，对东深供水改造工程某抽水泵站施工网络计划进行模拟，给出其进度和费用的风险分布．
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| 关 键 词： | 网络计划 工程进度 项目费用 风险评价 仿真 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1980(2004)01-0123-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-11-11 |
Simulation technology-based risk evaluation of schedule and cost for water resources projects |
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| SHEN Ju-qing,CHEN Jun-fei,OUYANG Fang. Simulation technology-based risk evaluation of schedule and cost for water resources projects[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ), 2004, 32(1): 123-126 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Ju-qing CHEN Jun-fei OUYANG Fang |
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| Affiliation: | SHEN Ju-qing~1,CHEN Jun-fei~1,OUYANG Fang~2 |
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| Abstract: | The schedule and cost risks of water resources projects are discussed, and a stochastic simulation model for risk evaluation of network schedule and cost is established based on the triangular distribution. The probability distribution and risk curve of schedule and cost are obtained by statistic analysis, providing a basis for risk evaluation of engineering projects. Finally, the model is applied to the simulation of the construction network schedule for a pumping station in Dongshen water supply reformation project, and the schedule and cost risk distributions are also given. |
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| Keywords: | network schedule schedule cost of project risk evaluation simulation |
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