| 我国石油天然气安全预警研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋杰鲲,张在旭,李继尊.我国石油天然气安全预警研究[J].河南科学,2008,26(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋杰鲲 张在旭 李继尊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学,华东,经济管理学院,山东,东营,257061
2. 国务院研究室,宏观经济研究司,北京,100017 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金，山东省自然科学基金，中国石油大学引进人才科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 石油天然气安全是我国能源安全的核心问题.基于供需、运输、灾变、经济和环境等因素,建立了石油天然气安全预警指标体系.综合运用主成分分析、自回归和K均值聚类,建立了石油天然气安全预警模型,并应用于我国石油天然气预警,结果表明2007年我国石油天然气运行继续处于危险状态,需加强防范.
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| 关 键 词： | 石油天然气 安全 预警 指标体系 模型 |
Research on Oil & Gas Security Pre-Warning of China |
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| Song Jiekun,Zhang Zaixu,Li Jizun.Research on Oil & Gas Security Pre-Warning of China[J].Henan Science,2008,26(8). |
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| Authors: | Song Jiekun Zhang Zaixu Li Jizun |
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| Institution: | Song Jiekun1,Zhang Zaixu1,Li Jizun2(1.School of Economics , Management,University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,Sh,ong China,2.Macroscopic Economical Research Department,State Council Research Department,Beijing 100017,China) |
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| Abstract: | Oil & gas security is the core of energy security of China.Based on the factors including supply and demand,transportation,cataclysm,economy and environment,oil & gas security pre-warning index system was established.A model for oil & gas security pre-warning was proposed utilizing principal components analysis,auto regressing and K-means clustering.Apply it in oil & gas security pre-warning of China,and the result showed that oil & gas energy would be dangerous in 2007 and should take some countermeasures. |
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| Keywords: | oil & gas security pre-warning index system model |
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