去补贴背景下城市出租车电动化转型系统动力学仿真

城市出租车电动化转型是一个复杂的动态过程,受补贴政策、燃料价格、电池技术进步、充电桩布置等因素的影响。本文以补贴退坡政策为背景,通过燃油出租车、双燃料出租车、电动出租车运营利润的比较,建立了出租车电动化转型的系统动力学模型,选取政府补贴、购置税优惠、电池成本、充电基础设施四个政策变量,设计基准情景、加速电动化和低速电动化三种情景,进行了政策仿真。结果显示,不同政策激励下电动化转型进程存在显著差异,政策组合有助于提高电动出租车的市场渗透率;取消补贴和车辆购置税优惠政策将减缓电动化转型速度,但是及时采取其他政策组合能够弥补其带来的负面影响。根据研究结果,提出了加速城市出租车电动化转型的政策建议。

The System Dynamic Simulation of Urban Taxi Electrification Transition under the Background of Decreasing Subsidies

The electrification transition of urban taxi is a complex dynamic process,influenced by factors such as subsidy policies,fuel price,battery technology advancement,and charging pile placement.Based on the background of decreasing subsidy policy,this paper establishes a system dynamics model of taxi electrification transition through the operating profit comparison of fuel taxi,dual fuel taxi and electric taxi,and selects four policy variables namely government subsidies,purchase tax preferences,battery costs and charging infrastructure.Three scenarios:business-as-usual scenario,accelerated electrification scenario and low-speed electrification scenario are set,and the policy simulation is carried out.The results show that there are significant differences in the process of electrification transition under different policy incentives.The policy combination will help to increase the market penetration rate of electric taxis.The elimination of subsidies and preferential policies for vehicle purchase tax will slow down the speed of electrification transition,but timely adoption of other policy combinations can make up for the negative impact.According to the results of the study,some policy suggestions for accelerating the electrification transition of urban taxi are proposed.