长江经济带新型城镇化进程中的减贫效应分析

消除贫困是长江经济带面临的主要任务，而城镇化是否有助于减贫关系到政策走向.该文利用长江经济带2000年～2016年面板数据，运用GS2SLS方法对长江经济带新型城镇化进程中的减贫效应进行实证考察.研究结果显示：长江经济带贫困问题具有空间外溢性，长江下游地区表现为正空间外溢性，而中上游地区表现为负空间外溢性；城镇化与贫困问题之间存在“倒U”型曲线关系，而分区域检验后这一关系更为显著；长江经济带现阶段仅有上海市、江苏省、浙江省、湖北省跨越了“倒U”型曲线拐点值，表明贫困问题的解决并非城镇化的必然结果而是其阶段性表现；基础设施效应是城镇化影响贫困问题的主要途径.

Analysis on the effect of poverty reduction in the process of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Poverty eradication is the main task faced by the Yangtze River economic belt， and whether urbanization contributes to poverty reduction is related to the policy trend. This paper utilizes the panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2016 and has a practical study on the effect of poverty reduction in the process of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by the method of GS2SLS. And the result shows that the problem of poverty in the economic belt of the Yangtze River is spatial spillover. The downstream area of the Yangtze River exhibits positive spatial spillover， while the middle and upper reaches show negative spatial spillover. There is a curve relationship like “inverted U” between the urbanization and poverty， and the relationship is more significant after the regional inspection. At this stage， only Shanghai， Jiangsu Province， Zhejiang Province and Hubei Province have crossed the point of inflection in the “inverted U” in the Yangtze River Economic Belt， which suggests that the solution of poverty problem is just a performance in a certain stage instead of the inevitable result of urbanization. Infrastructure effect is the major reason for urbanization to affect poverty.