中欧班列开通对长江经济带出口贸易的影响及机制研究

精准评估中欧班列对地区出口贸易的净效应，是客观评价长江经济带中欧班列建设效益及指导新时代“陆海统筹”开放路径探索的重要前提.利用中国29个省域地区(不含河南、西藏)2005年～2017年季度数据，经倾向得分匹配处理后，采用多期DID和DDD方法实证了中欧班列开通这一历史事件对长江经济带地区出口的影响.研究发现，相比全国及其他类型区域，长江经济带中欧班列开通对所在地区出口贸易量具有显著性正向影响，政策效应显现有1个季度的滞后期；中欧班列开通对长江经济带不同区位的影响具有空间异质性，对长江上游、中游和下游的出口促进作用呈现梯度递减趋势；中欧班列开通对长江经济带地区出口的促进作用来源于地区的“自贸试验区”改革属性，而受到“水陆”联运的影响不显著.

Research on the influence and mechanism of China-Europe Railway Express in the Yangtze River Economic Belt on the export trade

Accurately assessing the net effect of “China-Europe Railway Express” competition on regional export trade is an important prerequisite for objectively evaluating the construction efficiency of the CR express in Yangtze River Economic Belt and guiding the opening of the new era of “land and sea planning”. This paper uses the 2005-2017 quarterly data of 29 provinces (excluding Henan， Tibet) in China， with PSM processing and using multi-period DID and DDD methods to demonstrate the impact of this policy event on the export growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The study found that， compared to the national and other regional areas， the opening of the CR express in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has significantly promoted the growth of regional export trade， and the policy effect has a lag period of one quarter. The influence of the opening of the CR express in Yangtze River Economic Belt on the different regions is spatially heterogeneous. The export promotion effect on the upper， middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River by the CR express showed a gradient decreasing trend. The promotion effect of the CR express on the Yangtze River Economic Belt benefit from the reform of the regional “free trade zone”， instead of the “land and water combined transport” mechanism.