| 对高次指数平滑预测模型的改进和推广 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐伟. 对高次指数平滑预测模型的改进和推广[J]. 安庆师范学院学报(自然科学版), 2005, 11(1): 6-8,21 |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200433 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文揭示了指数平滑预测法与其它平均预测法之间的本质联系 ,指出了高次指数平滑预测法在对典型的斜坡型时间序列作预测时出现的系统误差和原因 ,最后把指数平滑预测法中指数权的原理推广到估计一般趋势线方程参数上
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| 关 键 词： | 平滑预测法 时间序列 指数权 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-4260(2005)01-0006-03 |
The Improvement and Spread for the Forecast Model of Higher Index Smooth |
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| XU Wei. The Improvement and Spread for the Forecast Model of Higher Index Smooth[J]. Journal of Anqing Teachers College(Natural Science Edition), 2005, 11(1): 6-8,21 |
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| Authors: | XU Wei |
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| Abstract: | This article reveals the essential connection between the index smooth forecast method and other average forecast methods, and points out the systematic errors that arise in making forecast for typical slope type time sequence by higher index smooth forecast method and the reasons for this phenomenon. Finally it strives to spread the principle of index weight in the above method to estimating parameter of general tendency line equation. |
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| Keywords: | the index smooth forecast method time sequence index weight tendency line |
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